Dave’s Football Blog

Ah, football. The gladiators of our modern-day Roman Empire, here to bring us our bread and circuses every autumn, filling our weekends with joy and violence and amazing feats of athelticism and showmanship.

And wagering. Lots and lots of wagering…

Of course, we don’t enslave our gladiators and make them fight to the death with live tigers prowling on the field. Instead, we give them college scholarships, good salaries, some protective gear, and a game intriguing enough to attract both hardcore strategists and casual fans. Yes, we are a kinder, gentler empire.

The 2004 NFL season is approaching, and people are already previewing the season and talking about preseason matchups. What is August without football prognostication, after all? With that in mind, here are my own predictions for the 2004 season…

AFC East

Forecast division winner: New England Patriots.

New England won a Super Bowl last year without a running game. Now they have Corey Dillon. Nothing short of complete collapse will keep them out of the top of the division this year.

The only team that could take the division title from them is the New York Jets, and that team’s new defensive scheme will take at least half a season to sink in. Buffalo is a longshot at best, and Miami won’t be able to score any points without a quarterback or a running back. Give this division to the Pats.

AFC North

Forecast division winner: Cincinnati Bengals.

Could it be? Have I completely lost my mind? Possibly, but Marvin Lewis has brought the Kool-Aid to Cincinnati, and everybody’s drinking. This is a young team on the rise. Much will depend on the performance of Carson Palmer at QB, though. If he shows the same leadership he showed at Southern Cal, this could finally be the year the Bengals break through the fog.

Baltimore will challenge on defense alone, but they still lack a decent passing game, and there is much uncertainty surrounding RB Jamal Lewis. The Browns have no offensive line and are lacking in direction. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s offensive line had improved, as did their situation at running back. (When will Bill Cowher admit that Jerome Bettis is done?) However, guard Kendall Simmons is now out for the season with a torn ACL, and without a line to protect Tommy Maddox, they may once again fade down the stretch.

AFC South

Forecast division winner: Indianapolis Colts

This may or may not be the last hurrah of the Big Three in Naptown. Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James came one step away from the Super Bowl last year, and they will be hungrier than ever to get the job done now.

The Tennessee Titans, meanwhile, keep losing players, though they do manage to find a way to keep it together. On the other hand, Jacksonville and Houston are both young and hungry teams, and they could play spoiler in this division, which could be the most volatile in the conference.

AFC West

Forecast division winner: Kansas City Chiefs

Even if the Chiefs defense hasn’t improved a lick this year, they will still win this division on the strength of their offense. The Broncos and Raiders are still in transition, and the Chargers are far from super. KC will need a better performance from its defense, though, if it wants to contend for a Super Bowl.

AFC Wild Card contenders: NY Jets, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Denver.

NFC East

Forecast division winner: Dallas Cowboys

I could be wrong about this. The Philadelphia Eagles improved their passing game immensely with the addition of Terrell Owens, and they improved their defense by adding pass rusher Jevon Kearse. They looked set for another run to the NFC title game. Then they lost RB Correll Buckhalter to a season-ending knee injury. With Duce Staley gone to Pittsburgh, that loss will hurt them more than they know.

Bill Parcells, meanwhile, surprised everyone in Dallas by taking the Cowboys to the playoffs. Now he’s beginning to put together the kind of team that he takes to Super Bowls. Don’t be surprised to see this team work a few miracles, even with their question marks at QB.

The Redskins and Giants, meanwhile, are in transition, and they will need time to adjust to their new coaches. Next year, though, this could easily be the toughest division in the NFL.

NFC North

Forecast division winner: Green Bay Packers

Brett Favre needs to stay healthy. Period. If he can do that, the Packers will win this division. They have the running game and the defense to do the job.

Minnesota, meanwhile, may still be reeling from last year’s upset at the hands of the lowly Cardinals. They still have a good team and will be playoff contender, but their tendency to break down near season’s end makes me hesitant to pick them to go very far. Detroit needs at least another year to gel, but they could play spoiler more than the Bengals did last year. As for Da Bears… buck up, Chicago. The Cubs are in a pennant race.

NFC South

Forecast division winner: Carolina Panthers

Yes, I know it’s hard for me to be objective about this team, but look at it. This defense was one of the best in the league last year, and it will be better now that Mark Fields’ cancer is in remission. The offensive line may be a little suspect, but if they can hold up and give Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster enough room to make an impact, this team can prove that they were no fluke last year.

Besides, look at the rest of the division. Tampa Bay is in transition after losing Warren Sapp and John Lynch to free agency, and New Orleans never had much defense to start with. The only team that could knock the Panthers off their perch is Atlanta, and only on the broad shoulders of Michael Vick. If Vick proves to be as explosive as he was before his leg injury last season, Atlanta will contend.

But the Panthers will take the division again. Remember that.

NFC West

Forecast division winner: Seattle Seahawks

Quitting his post as GM to concentrate on coaching was the best thing that ever happened to Mike Holmgren. As soon as he did that, Seattle improved enough to get to the playoffs. Now, they have all their offensive weapons in place and clicking, and if the rookies on their defense can pull it together, the Seahawks will fly into the playoffs.

Of course, the Rams will have something to say about that, but they are the ‘Hawks only challenger in this division, and they have lost a few key defensive players. Plus, Marc Bulger is still a marginal quarterback, and Marshall Faulk isn’t getting any younger. They will contend, but they are beginning to fade over the long haul.

Meanwhile, Arizona and San Francisco will contend for little more than the top pick in the NFL Draft next April. The 49ers’ hiring of Dennis Erickson will prove to be that franchise’s biggest mistake ever.

NFC Wild Card contenders: Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Minnesota, St. Louis.

It’s going to be a fun season, folks. Stay tuned.